It can be difficult to get accurate and time sensitive information on how countries are doing at present during the SARS-2 pandemic (COVID-19 is the illness, the pandemic is the virus). Exploring factors potentially related to outcomes is important as a means to consider further outcome prediction. Key factors are likely related to government and public health leadership and the potential for actual public adoption of mitigation strategies for the virus. In this post, I answer 4 questions that should provide some insight into this very important issue.
What I Did
I took the John Hopkins Covid-19 data, which is the defacto centralized source for Covid-19 data globally. I then combined that with data on Median Per Capita Income and Population from World Population Review. Finally I added a column of data from the Transparency International dataset that provides an honesty score for each country. For the results of this analysis please go to this Medium story.
There are 2 repositories that are associated with this on GitHub. The first one titled covid, has all of the code for this analysis. The second one, titled arima, has a reusable ARIMA process that can be utilized with the John Hopkins data or could easily be repurposed for another univariate time series that you want to forecast outcomes.